Ones and Tooze The Enduring Impact of the War in Iran
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Mar 27, 2026 
Adam Tooze, Columbia history professor and economics columnist, brings wide-ranging analysis to the Iran war's fallout. He discusses Gulf states' differing roles, Dubai's commercial resilience, why Gulf oil exporters invest in renewables, and how China and airlines may be affected. Short, sharp takes on global coalitions, supply-chain risks, and who wins or loses economically.
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Gulf States Are Very Different Economies
- The Gulf states are economically distinct not a monolithic bloc with identical exposure to the war.
- Qatar is an LNG city-state; UAE centers on trade and Dubai services; Saudi is a large petrol-dependent economy with 38 million people.
Strait Of Hormuz Is A Major Global Energy Chokepoint
- Pre-war chokepoints matter: ~34% of globally traded crude oil transited the Strait of Hormuz, amplifying economic risk from disruptions.
- Similar shares: 19% of LNG and 16% of refined products also used the strait before the war.
Dubai's Resilience Comes From Trade Not Tourism
- Dubai and similar hubs are resilient because they sit at strategic nodal points in global trade, not merely as transient tourist spots.
- Dubai's tourism is under 10% of GDP; its core is commerce, finance, and real estate tied to regional oil wealth.