Bloomberg Law States Fight Live Nation Settlement & Who Is Betting on War?
Mar 12, 2026
Eric Talley, Columbia Law business professor and co-host of Beyond Unprecedented, studies markets and regulatory issues including prediction platforms. He discusses how Polymarket-style contracts work. He explains suspicious large wagers around a possible US strike on Iran and the regulatory, investigative, and cross-border challenges those markets raise.
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Surprising Settlement Suggests Political Intervention
- The DOJ settlement with Live Nation looks politically driven and may have sidelined experienced trial staff.
- Harry First suspects senior DOJ officials struck a secret term sheet that trial teams and many states were not looped into, undermining public interest remedies.
Settlement Avoids Forcing Ticketmaster Divestiture
- The proposed settlement fails to secure the core remedy plaintiffs sought: divestiture of Ticketmaster from Live Nation.
- Harry First notes the relief offered (API access, contract tweaks, possible money) likely won't change the industry's economic incentives that drive high ticket prices.
States Should Arm Themselves With Top Trial Teams
- States must decide whether to join the DOJ deal or continue trial to pursue divestiture and precedent.
- Harry First advises assembling top trial lawyers and economists because proving divestiture requires heavy expert work and resources.