U.S.-Israel-Iran War update: Arash Azizi on 'scary times' in Tehran, Gregg Carlstrom on fury toward Iran in the Gulf

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Mar 3, 2026

Guest

Arash Azizi

Guest

Greg Karlstrom

Arash Azizi, Iranian-born historian and journalist, reflects on fear, relief and uncertainty inside Iran after leadership losses. Greg Karlstrom, Dubai-based Middle East correspondent, reports rising Gulf anger, risks to oil and infrastructure, and how regional states might respond short of full combat. They discuss leadership shifts, civilian harm, and the geopolitical ripple effects of the strikes.

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INSIGHT

Iranians Feel Relief Mixed With Acute Fear

Many Iranians were relieved to see Ayatollah Khamenei gone but fear and uncertainty dominate because strikes hit dense cities causing hundreds of civilian casualties.
Arash Azizi described family calls saying "we're alive" and cited schoolgirls killed in Minab as emblematic civilian tolls.

INSIGHT

Collective Leadership Holds Iran Together For Now

Iran's National Security Council has acted as a collective leadership since June and is now the de facto center of power despite a constitutional leadership committee.
Azizi noted the IRGC's decentralized, quasi-independent nature but said regime cohesion has largely held so far.

INSIGHT

Ceasefire Possible But Pause Risks Deep Damage

A negotiated ceasefire or agreement is possible within months because continued regional damage creates incentives for both sides to stop.
Azizi warned pause-only outcomes risk long-term economic collapse and an unstable, perpetually threatened Iran.

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“It is a time of fear and worry, but also a time of hope” in Iran after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the early days of the U.S.-Israel assault on the regime in Tehran, said Iranian-American scholar and journalist Arash Azizi.

“The first thing [my family in Iran] told me was that they called me to say they were alive after Tehran was hit, and there are hundreds of civilian casualties,” said Azizi, speaking on a wartime edition of the Haaretz Podcast. Of Khamenei, he said “most Iranians are happy to see him gone.”

Azizi was sharply critical of U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s calls for Iranian civilians to rise up and overthrow their regime.

“It's absolutely bonkers,” he said. “If you had a population that had organized networks ready to take over, you could imagine perhaps something like that happening. But we don’t. So both Trump and Netanyahu keep saying this, and it makes me wonder, do they really believe it?”

He also had harsh words for Iranian exiles like himself, who he said were unprepared for this moment. “We have not done the work, we have not built organizations, we did not get our act together in a way that would be ready to make a successful transition to democracy.”

Also on the podcast: Gregg Carlstrom, The Economist’s Dubai-based Middle East correspondent, reports on the growing anger in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates sparked by the intensity of the Iranian assault that could fuel support among everyday people to pick sides in this conflict.

“The question is, what does that mean? Is it allowing America to use bases and Gulf countries to carry out attacks against Iran, or is it going a step further and militarily getting involved with their own warplanes and troops? I think it's more likely that they're willing to do the former than the latter.”

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