How Record Metal Prices Mask Fatal Management Sins: Why Most Mergers Fail

Jan 9, 2026

Steve Enders, an expert in mining technical execution and academic leadership, teams up with Jasper Bertisen, an investment professional with a deep focus on management due diligence. They unveil how management quality outweighs geology in determining mining investment success. Key topics include identifying red flags like skill misalignment and ego-driven behaviors. They stress that high metal prices can obscure poor management, urging investors to adopt objective tools like psychometric testing and blind referencing to ensure robust team evaluation.

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INSIGHT

People Drive Portfolio Outcomes

98% of interviewed investors said management quality is the dominant driver of mining investment outcomes.
Management often determines success during tough periods more than geology or technical factors.

INSIGHT

Two Predictable Failure Modes

Two recurring red flags were skill misalignment and ego-driven behaviors under stress.
Teams often fail when stress reveals poor communication, micromanagement, or cultural breakdowns.

INSIGHT

Culture Tops M&A Pitfalls

Most M&A failures stem from cultural fit and overstated synergies rather than pure technical flaws.
A facilitated, deliberate assimilation process improves merger success odds.

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In the first long-form episode of 2026, host Trevor Hall welcomes Steve Enders and Jasper Bertisen to discuss why mining investments frequently succeed or fail based on people rather than just geology. The guests elaborate on their research paper, which found that nearly 98% of surveyed investors agree that management quality is the dominant variable in driving portfolio outcomes, especially during difficult times. They identify two major red flags: a misalignment of skills for a specific strategy and ego-driven behaviors that surface when teams face stressors like CAPEX overruns or jurisdictional issues. To move beyond "gut feel," the discussion highlights objective tools like blind referencing and psychometric testing, which help investors identify if a team lacks diversity of thought or resists transparency. Steve and Jasper warn that while high metal prices can mask management "sins" much like high-grade ore does, investors must remain vigilant to avoid inefficiencies that are only exposed once the cycle turns.

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