Politics At Sam and Anne's Spring forecast: Decoding Reeves’ boasts
Mar 3, 2026
They dissect the spring forecast and Rachel Reeves’ confident defence of the plan. They probe OBR assumptions on energy, growth, borrowing and unemployment. They flag risks from Middle East shocks, rising gas prices and migration assumptions. They spotlight pressure on public services like SEND and the NHS and debate the timing of major fiscal decisions.
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Forecast Claims Clash With Energy Market Shifts
- Rachel Reeves framed the spring forecast as proof "this government has the right economic plan" while nodding to Middle East uncertainty.
- Sam Coates and Anne McElvoy highlight energy and oil price moves that already contradict OBR assumptions on gas and oil.
Small Forecast Changes Are Swamped By Geopolitics
- The OBR's central forecasts barely move versus November, producing a "steady as she goes" statement with small downgrades and upgrades.
- Ruth Curtis and Sam note that global events like Iran can instantly make those small moves irrelevant and push borrowing costs up.
Growth Profile Is Muted And Politically Vulnerable
- GDP growth across the forecast period is effectively unchanged but timing shifts: slightly less in 2026, slightly more in 2027–28.
- Sam warns this weak profile and use of GDP per head (with migration) make the growth picture politically frail.