Funding the Future Will Middle East war trigger economic shock?
Mar 7, 2026
A look at how conflict in the Middle East is spilling into global markets and supply chains. The risks of the Strait of Hormuz shutting down and the fallout for oil, gas and industrial inputs are explored. Water and desalination threats, migration pressures, and how military logistics could prolong the crisis are discussed. The conversation contrasts politics of fear with politics of care.
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Strait Of Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Energy Shock
- The Middle East conflict has become a global economic shock that threatens oil, gas, ammonia and industrial inputs via the closed Strait of Hormuz.
- Richard Murphy warns low global gas storage and limited UK capacity make price shocks and inflation the default outcome if disruption continues.
War Outcome Is Unknowable Because Logistics Drive It
- The conflict's duration is highly uncertain because modern war is a logistics game with unknown ammunition and interceptor depletion timelines.
- Murphy stresses we cannot price outcomes or assign probabilities, increasing market and government panic risk.
Desalination Attacks Could Cause Urban Water Crises
- Attacks on regional infrastructure like desalination plants could create immediate humanitarian crises by cutting water to major cities.
- Murphy highlights Kuwait and Qatar's reliance on imports via Hormuz, making them especially vulnerable.