The Brian Lehrer Show Prediction Markets and the War and Other Economic News
Mar 11, 2026
John Cassidy, New Yorker staff writer and author on economics and capitalism. He unpacks prediction markets and suspicious well-timed trades. He explores anonymity, regulation, and insider trading risks. He discusses how markets respond to war, oil prices, and the costs of conflict. He outlines proposals to police unregulated exchanges and steer AI policy toward workers.
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Prediction Markets Aggregate Insider Signals
- Prediction markets like Polymarket aggregate private information and can outperform statistical models in well-traded events such as presidential elections.
- Polymarket offered bets on coups and invasions and showed large, concentrated bets shortly before Maduro's ouster and the Iran invasion, implying insider signals.
Anonymity Enables Potential Insider Trading
- Offshore, crypto-based prediction markets let users place large anonymous bets, making it hard to identify insiders.
- In the Iran case thousands bet the day before the invasion, some with very large sums, raising insider-trading concerns.
Legal Liability Versus Practical Enforcement
- Legal liability exists for leaking classified information, but enforcement is difficult when bets are placed via crypto and offshore platforms.
- Even with cooperation, blockchain and offshore structures create practical hurdles for tracing actors.
