Stephanie Pomboy: Market Confusion -- Are Things Getting Better...Or Worse??

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Feb 12, 2026

Stephanie Pomboy, macro analyst and founder of Macro Mavens, breaks down confusing economic signals. She contrasts a strong payroll print with weakening retail sales, rising credit-card debt and delinquencies. They discuss Fed politics, Kevin Warsh’s nomination, gold’s pullback and policy links, plus consumer stress from student loans and bankruptcies.

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INSIGHT

January Payrolls Are Statistically Noisy

January payrolls often surprise upside due to volatile seasonal adjustments and birth-death tweaks.
Stephanie warns a single strong payroll print doesn't prove a broad labor-market turn.

INSIGHT

Consumer Strain Masks Payroll Strength

Retail spending weakness plus rising credit-card borrowing signals consumer distress despite resilient payrolls.
Stephanie highlights rising delinquencies and weak retail sales as red flags for demand.

INSIGHT

Student Loans Could Trigger Broader Defaults

Student-loan repayment restart is already lifting delinquencies and may cascade into other consumer debt.
Stephanie expects authorities to delay harsh enforcement until after October to avoid political fallout.

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REGISTER FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S SPRING ONLINE CONFERENCE AT THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT PRICE at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceOn the surface, today’s payrolls report was a blockbuster upside surprise.And the unemployment rate fell (from 4.4% to 4.3%).But when looking at other recent data, like weakening retail spending and a surge in both credit card balances & consumer debt delinquencies, things look less rosy.So which is it: Is the economy getting better or worse?Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy returned for a livestream this morning to discuss this key question with me. We also discussed her thoughts on the selection of Kevin Warsh as the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, as well as her reaction to the sharp pullback and subsequent recovery in the gold price.Follow Stephanie at https://macromavens.com/Or on X at @spomboy#federalreserve #goldprice #jobsreport_____________________________________________Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.