The Foreign Desk As the war in Iran enters its second month, is victory for anyone still possible?
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Apr 4, 2026 Dina Esfandiari, Bloomberg Economics geoeconomics lead, on Iran’s economic aims and energy leverage. Gorana Gerjic, Monocle security correspondent, on European coordination and diplomatic choices. General Sir Richard Sherriff, retired NATO commander, on military risks, island seizures, and why force without strategy could fail. The conversation centers on control of the Strait of Hormuz, coalition options, and what each side can realistically achieve.
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US Strategy Lacked A Viable Plan B
- The US aimed to decapitate Iran and force regime change but the strategy has stalled after five weeks.
- Andrew Mueller highlights lack of plan B and the global economic fallout from a closed Strait of Hormuz driving oil price shocks.
Holding Hormuz Requires A Ceasefire
- Reopening the Strait of Hormuz by force is technically possible but holding it amid ongoing conflict is nearly impossible.
- General Sir Richard Sherriff argues that only a ceasefire and talks can sustainably restore passage.
Stop Fighting Then Build A Coalition
- Stop the fighting first and assemble a coalition of willing nations before attempting to secure shipping.
- Sherriff urges diplomacy and coordinated multinational planning rather than unilateral military fixes.