Global Macro Update How This 45-Year Industry Vet Is Investing in Nuclear Energy
Feb 9, 2024
David Hay, CIO at Evergreen GaveKal with 40+ years in macro and energy investing, shares big-picture views on markets and long-term themes. He discusses why nuclear power, especially small and molten-salt reactors, is gaining attention. He also covers China risks and technical signals, oil market distortions, Japan’s appeal, and looming fiscal and bond-market stresses.
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Markets Are In A Great Disconnect From Real Fundamentals
- David Hay sees a big-picture Fourth Turning and a reinflated Bubble 3.0 creating a Great Disconnect between markets and real-world fundamentals.
- He warns euphoria is narrow (Magnificent Seven shrinking) and that disconnects create opportunities for unconstrained managers.
Hidden Oil Tightness From DUC Drawdown And Rising Developing World Demand
- Hay rejects the 'energy abundance' thesis and highlights demand growth in the developing world plus politicized IEA underestimates.
- He flags DUCs (drilled but uncompleted wells) in the Permian as a hidden supply constraint that could spark a sharp oil rally.
Support Nuclear Deployment And Watch Molten Salt Reactors
- Don't oppose nuclear; instead remove regulatory barriers and consider next gen tech like molten salt reactors for safety and scalability.
- Hay invested in a molten salt modular reactor firm run by ex-Navy nuclear engineers and highlights uranium supply shortages.
