Marketplace All-in-One The crackdown on prediction market insider trading
Apr 7, 2026
Nova Sofo, Marketplace reporter on economic data, and Edward Fishman, CFR fellow and author on the petrodollar, plus Megan McCarty Carino, Marketplace reporter on prediction markets and regulation. They discuss durable goods weakness and shifting business investment. They unpack the petrodollar’s role amid oil shocks and geopolitical risks. They explore insider trading concerns and rule changes shaping prediction market platforms.
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Prediction Markets Split Between Forecasting And Betting
- Prediction markets are being debated as forecasting tools versus regulated betting platforms with insider-trading risks.
- Megan McCarty Carino highlights Dodd-Frank (2010) changed commodities law and CFTC now cites enforcement priority against insider trading on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Insider Trading In Commodities Was Legal Until 2010
- Commodities insider trading was legal for most of U.S. history until Dodd-Frank made it prosecutable in 2010.
- Andrew Verstein and Megan McCarty Carino note the CFTC pursued this change after high-profile examples like Trading Places inspired reform.
Insider Knowledge Can Improve Market Forecasts
- Proponents like Robin Hanson argue insider information can improve prediction-market accuracy.
- Hanson says markets reveal beliefs of people willing to put money on outcomes, so those with advantages enhance informational value.