Eric Basmajian, economist and founder of EPB Research, offers macro analysis on labor, housing, credit, and policy. He explains the surge in private credit redemptions and what payroll revisions reveal. He discusses long-term real wage trends, tech layoffs versus cyclical losses, housing construction dynamics, and how profit margins and oil shocks shape Fed choices.
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insights INSIGHT
Jobs Slowdown Is Concentrated In Cyclical Sectors
The labor market is slowing predominantly in cyclical sectors like construction and manufacturing.
Basmajian notes roughly 120–150k job losses in those sectors since 2023 while the headline unemployment rate remains stable due to a sluggish labor force response.
insights INSIGHT
Families Are Missing Real Income From Lower Investment
Long-term real income growth has slowed because of weak private investment and rising government share.
Basmajian quantifies the gap: about $5,000 missing per capita or ~$20,000 for a family of four versus pre-2008 trend.
insights INSIGHT
Tech Layoffs Are Idiosyncratic Not Cycle Starters
Tech layoffs reflect both AI-driven efficiency narratives and post-pandemic overhiring.
Basmajian argues tech cuts are idiosyncratic and less likely to trigger broad recessions compared with losses in interest-rate-sensitive cyclical sectors.
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Eric Basmajian, economist and Founder of EPB Research, discusses the rise in private credit redemptions, updates in the labor market, the housing market, and outlook for FOMC action. Check out and subscribe to my new clips channel: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidLinReportClips*This video was recorded on March 12, 2026.To get 5% off of your CoolWallet purchase, use my link: https://www.coolwallet.io/discount/davidcwSubscribe to my free newsletter: https://davidlinreport.substack.com/Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/510WZMFaqeh90Xk4jcE34sListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/the-david-lin-reportFOLLOW ERIC BASMAJIAN:EPB Research: https://epbresearch.com/X (@EPBResearch): https://x.com/EPBResearchYouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@EPBResearchFOLLOW DAVID LIN:X (@davidlin_TV): https://x.com/davidlin_TVTikTok (@davidlin_TV): https://www.tiktok.com/@davidlin_tvInstagram (@davidlin_TV): https://www.instagram.com/davidlin_tv/For business inquiries, reach me at david@thedavidlinreport.comDISCLAIMER: This video is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.The views and opinions expressed by guests are solely their own and do not represent the views of this channel. Any forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.This channel may include sponsors or affiliates. Their inclusion does not constitute an endorsement, and the channel is not responsible for the performance, claims, or actions of any sponsor, affiliate, or third party.No content in this video should be interpreted as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or assets. Investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.0:00 - Intro1:50 - Private credit redemptions 5:20 - Labor market overview 8:43 - Changes in real wages11:53 - Tech layoffs15:00 - No-hire, No-fire economy 19:44 - Auto industry and cyclicals 24:00 - Tariffs and earnings25:55 - Housing 32:05 - Banning institutional buyers of homes 34:53 - FOMC action 39:20 - Fed’s 2008 mistake40:50 - Market outlook 43:36 - EPB Research #economy #jobs #employment
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