Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 009: Outliers, Crises, and the Geometry of Trend

Join Rich Brennan, Adam Havryliv, and Jerry Parker for a packed end of year episode of Turtle Talk. No guests this time, just the three of us digging into markets, exploring deep structural ideas, and sharing fresh insights from the worlds of trend following, diversification, and outlier hunting. This one is full of charts, data, lived experience, and a few laughs along the way.

In this episode:

📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – October 2025 Review
Classic Trend Index edges back into positive territory for the year. We walk through the latest numbers, the recovery from the mid year drawdown, and why outlier oriented programs continue to pull away from their higher Sharpe peers.

📈 What’s Moved the Needle
Violent retracements in precious metals, deep reversals in cattle, and cycle high yields in the Japanese bond market. Jerry, Adam, and Rich break down the charts and discuss why trading through the noise requires loose pants, strong rules, and zero emotion.

🐢 Extended Turtle Tidbits
A four part deep dive featuring:
• Why Outlier Hunters Win Across Full Cycles, including calm world vs rough world dynamics and the geometry of compounding
• One Hundred and Twenty Five Years of Crisis, and what history reveals about market structure, drawdowns, and fat tails
• Diversification for Outlier Hunting, and why classic trend followers play a different game
• Is Trend Following an Infinite Money Glitch, and what truly drives long term robustness

💬 Shell Mail (Q&A)
Listener questions on stability, fragility, valuation extremes, diversification, and how to think about trend following when markets appear to be defying gravity.

🌐 Episode Resources
Classic Trend Index: https://classictrendindex.com
Aussie Turtles: https://www.aussieturtles.com
ATS Trading Solutions: https://atstradingsolutions.com
Send your questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact

As our final episode for 2025, we want to thank every listener, supporter, and fellow trend follower who has joined us this year. From the three of us at Aussie Turtles, we wish you a very happy Christmas and a great New Year. We look forward to seeing you again when Turtle Talk returns in January.

#TurtleTalk #TrendFollowing #OutlierHunter #AussieTurtles #SystematicTrading #JerryParker #CTA #MarketStructure