What Next | Daily News and Analysis The Case for a Blue Wave
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Jan 13, 2026 David Faris, a political scientist and writer known for his sharp analysis on U.S. elections, explores the potential for a Democratic resurgence in the upcoming midterms. He discusses how record retirements might reshape congressional dynamics. The conversation highlights the implications of independent voter sentiments and the chaotic immigration narrative impacting GOP support. Faris also emphasizes the importance of Latino and youth turnout as pivotal for Democratic success, while assessing gerrymandering concerns and key Senate pickup opportunities.
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2018 Offers A Useful Precedent
- The 2018 midterms show a post-first-term backlash can produce big House gains for the opposition.
- Faris notes 2018 conditions were in some ways worse for Democrats than 2026 looks now.
Chaos Trumps Economic Sugar High
- Early Trump unpopularity was partially masked by the 2017 tax cuts' economic bump.
- Faris says today's chaos is more disruptive and visible to independent voters than 2017 was.
Independents React To Chaos, Not Only Policy
- Visible chaos—like violent enforcement scenes—turns off independent voters more than abstract policy positions.
- Faris warns Republicans misinterpreted backlash against chaos as animus toward migrants.