Office Hours: War fever

I’m becoming increasingly worried that a growing segment of the American public is pushing for a war with Russia. Needless to say, that would be suicidal.

This morning I saw an open open letter to the Biden administration signed by a group of 27 foreign policy heavyweights, calling for a limited no-fly zone over Ukraine — “starting with protection for humanitarian corridors that were agreed upon in talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials.” The proposal sounds reasonable until you think about how this “limited” no-fly zone would be enforced. NATO would have to engage Russian forces that violate it. That would mean war.

There’s also the question of whether Poland will donate to Ukraine Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets, which Ukraine pilots know how to fly, in return for America supplying fighter jets to Poland. This also brings NATO frighteningly close to war with Russia.

So today’s Office Hours question: Should we worry that America and the West are heading toward a war with Russia? If so, how do we avoid it?

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Having read through your comments, I want to thank you for your thoughtfulness. I'm as spooked by this as any of you, having spent the first ten years of my life worrying that the Soviet Union would drop a bomb on America at any moment. I even remember urging my father to build a bomb shelter (to which his wise response was "not unless you, Bobby, are willing to kill neighbors who will want to crowd into it").

American foreign policy is dominated by two metaphoric enemies -- either Hitler (whom appeasement only encouraged) and Ho Chi Min (whose nationalism had nothing to do with Soviet expansionism). Putin seems to exist more in the former camp, which means we need to do everything possible to make his invasion of Ukraine as painful as possible for him. But there's also an element of ethnic nationalism to his aggression, which suggests he might be willing to settle for Russian-dominated parts of Ukraine and not threaten NATO.

I'm no expert in foreign policy, but I do think it important for us to be clear-eyed about all this and succumb neither to war-mongering jingoism that could lead to nuclear annihilation (as exemplified by today's letter from foreign-policy heavyweights calling for a "limited" no-fly zone) nor to a naive isolationism. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said today that the U.S. wants to get fighter jets to Ukraine “in the right way,” which leaves open the door to helping Poland supply them to Ukraine. Is this a slippery slope? At what point does the U.S. become a combatant?

Like many of you, I trust Biden and his foreign policy advisers. I think they've done an excellent job so far. And I'm thankful that the former guy is far from the Oval Office. But I'm still deeply worried.

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