The Canadian Money Roadmap How to Build a Better Investment Portfolio (Evidence-Based Investing)
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Mar 4, 2026 
Sam, frequent co-host and evidence-based investing advocate, brings clear takes on portfolio construction. They challenge relying on past returns alone. Short conversations cover diversification, fees, turnover, concentration, and how these factors shape a more resilient portfolio.
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Magellan Fund Story Shows Past Returns Aren't Permanent
- Evan recounts the Magellan Fund story and Peter Lynch's 29% annual average while he managed the fund in the 1970s–1990s.
- The fund later underperformed its benchmark over 15 years, showing stellar past returns don't guarantee future success.
Top Fund Performance Rarely Persists
- Dimensional's study found top-quartile funds in a five-year period repeated in the top quartile only about 23% of the time.
- That persistence is below the 25% you'd expect by luck, meaning past top performance poorly predicts future top performance.
Higher Risk Widens Outcomes Not Guarantees Returns
- Higher risk expands the range of outcomes but doesn't guarantee higher realized returns.
- A wider outcome range increases the probability of worse-than-expected results, not just the chance of very high returns.