Eyck Freymann: Defending Taiwan

May 4, 2026

Eyck (Ike) Freymann, Hoover Institution fellow and author on U.S.-China strategic issues, explores Taiwan, deterrence, and his book Defending Taiwan. He discusses why a Taiwan crisis could be catastrophic. He explains Taiwan’s central role in global chip supply, the limits of the Silicon Shield, and coercive gray-zone tactics Beijing might use. He outlines alliances, economic tools, and strategic options to prevent war.

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INSIGHT

Why Taiwan Is The Chip Powerhouse

Taiwan is critical because TSMC makes ~90% of the world's advanced semiconductors and 99% of the cutting-edge AI chips.
Taiwan's fabs combine US designs, Dutch EUV machines, Japanese chemicals, and Korean memory into an unparalleled concentrated supply chain.

ANECDOTE

TSMC's Trillion Dollar Role And Local Edge

Eyck Freymann recounts TSMC's valuation and relationship with clients: TSMC became a trillion‑dollar company and most larger firms are its customers.
He notes TSMC's Arizona fab runs at 4nm, trailing Taiwan's 2nm edge, reflecting Taipei's rule that bleeding edge stays on the island.

INSIGHT

How Strategic Ambiguity Preserved Peace

Strategic ambiguity has preserved stability by deterring both Beijing and Taipei: the US signals it may intervene but does not formally recognize Taiwan as independent.
The Taiwan Relations Act treats Taiwan like a country without calling it one, enabling dual deterrence for 50 years.

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The first place many people looked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was Taiwan, long in the sights of the communist government of mainland China, which has vowed to absorb the island nation. If bigger countries were once again subsuming smaller neighbors, what could keep an ever-stronger China from going to war with Taiwan? And will it be the tripwire to sparking a third world war, this time with the United States and China as the main players?

According to the Hoover Institution’s Eyck Freymann, Taiwan is where the uneasy peace between the United States and China will be tested—and maybe broken. In Beijing’s terms, “reunification” is inevitable. American military strength has preserved peace and stability for decades, but its advantages are eroding. Freymann says Beijing has found critical gaps in U.S. strategy and is working to squeeze, isolate and coerce Taiwan into submission without firing a shot. If deterrence fails, the consequences of a Taiwan crisis could be catastrophic, perhaps plunging the global economy into chaos, shattering U.S. alliances, and allowing China to dominate the region and reshape the world order.

Freymann explores this nightmare scenario and how to avoid it in his new book Defending Taiwan, presenting an integrated strategy to deter war with China and preserve an honorable peace. He draws on untranslated Chinese sources, cutting-edge military and economic analysis, and deep historical research to argue that Washington’s deterrence strategy must extend beyond conventional military power and familiar threats of mutually assured destruction; America must work with allies to develop a bold new vision of technological and economic statecraft—and a plan to secure its interests if deterrence fails. He says the United States can deter China’s full range of strategic options. but to do so it must integrate its military strength, economic leverage, technological leadership, and diplomatic influence into a single, coherent plan to prevent war.

Join us to hear a new grand strategy for ensuring a lasting stable U.S.-China relationship—and to preventing World War III.

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