Insights Now Alternative Realities: What's next for oil prices?
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Mar 17, 2026 Aga Zmigrodzka, an equity research analyst focused on U.S. energy and commodities at J.P. Morgan Asset Management with 15+ years covering energy and midstream. She breaks down how geopolitical shocks lift near-term oil risk premiums. She discusses portfolio balance and quality amid volatility. She contrasts exporters and importers, and outlines shifting demand trends like EVs, LNG and jet fuel tightness.
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Keep Oil Beta Balanced With Quality Stocks
- Maintain a balanced portfolio with measured oil and gas exposure.
- Aga Zmigrodzka recommends focusing on high-quality companies with strong 'fortress' balance sheets, cost discipline, and durable resource duration.
Market Pricing Reflects Short Term Geopolitical Premium
- Near-term Brent futures show a large premium versus 12-month benchmarks indicating a geopolitical risk price.
- The market prices about a $25 spread and assumes disruption will be short lived (one to two months), making duration the key driver of outcomes.
Strait Of Hormuz Duration Drives Price Risk
- Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz matters because about 20% of global oil flows transit it, and available SPR releases cannot fully replace that volume.
- A one-month closure might be manageable; a two- to three-month closure creates much larger upside price risk and potential demand destruction above $100/barrel.