The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more Shock and Awe - and Then What?
Yesterday, the US and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran, targeting key military and other strategic facilities. The Ayatollah Khamenei - supreme leader of Iran for 36 years - has already been confirmed dead, killed in the strikes along with several other senior officials.
In retaliation, Iran has struck US military bases, Israel, and targets across the Middle East. Supposedly safe Dubai has been hit.
We pray for every innocent caught up in this, wherever they are.
We have a major conflict in the Middle East on our hands. Again.
ICYMI, here is the week’s commentary. I’m glad we were positioned for this oil rally.
The early signs
This operation was reportedly planned for months and rumours about its imminence have been circulating for as long.
President Trump has promised to obliterate Iran’s nuclear programme and end the regime.
Many Iranians have been pictured celebrating in the streets. This regime was massacring protesters only last month. Iranians may not mourn its end.
The succession question seems open. One hopes Israel and the US have plans in this regard, but, with no vice-supreme-leader position, there is bound to be something of a power vacuum, even if a three-person council has temporarily assumed power.
The US-Israeli intention may be for this conflict to be swift and decisive, but the pattern of US warfare, as long as I can remember, is that it scores big, decisive victories early - so convincing that you think it will be a walkover - and then the enemy regroups, and the conflict drags on far longer than anyone hoped.
The nature of the military industrial complex, and how it is funded, means the incentive is rarely to wrap things up quickly, I am sorry to say, and that might have rather a lot to do with this repeating pattern.
We don’t yet know how this one ends, but the US already has a typically big early score with Ayatollah Khamenei now dead. I really would not be surprised to see the rest of the pattern repeat.
If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. More here.
What happened last time
You’re no doubt wondering what the effect of this will be on prices and the answer is: perhaps not what you expect.