Bloomberg Businessweek Warsh Set to Face Early Reality Check as Trump’s Man at the Fed
Jan 30, 2026
Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck Funds, offers ETF and gold market perspective. Dr. Ellen Wald, energy and geopolitics expert, weighs in on oil and supply risks. They dig into gold’s rally and ETF flows. They explore how AI and electrification may boost commodity demand. They consider geopolitical strains, Venezuela and oil company constraints.
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Episode notes
Warsh’s AI Productivity Rationale
- Kevin Warsh blends hawkish monetary credibility with a pro-growth AI productivity thesis that could justify lower rates.
- He must persuade Fed colleagues and markets that AI-led productivity will sustainably curb inflation.
Limit Forward Guidance And Short-Term Forecasts
- Avoid overreliance on short-term forecasts and forward guidance, Warsh argues they create communication problems.
- He recommends limiting fixed forward guidance to retain policy flexibility.
Balance Sheet Reduction Is Central
- Warsh wants a materially smaller Fed balance sheet and views post-crisis QE as overextended.
- Shrinking the balance sheet will be a key test for markets and Wall Street under his leadership.
