In the Money with Amber Kanwar Iran’s Oil Crisis Could Send Prices to $200 — Is Canada the Big Winner?
The oil market has been rocked by escalating tensions in the Middle East, massive price swings, and a growing debate over whether the world is heading into a full-blown energy shock. In this special two-part episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, we bring you perspectives from both sides of the market.
First, Josh Young, Portfolio Manager at Bison Investments, breaks down the crisis from the buy side, explaining why he believes the oil market was already tightening long before the latest geopolitical escalation and why the risk of a major supply shock is being underestimated. He walks through what could happen if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist — including his view that if the strait were to remain closed for roughly 60 days, oil prices could surge to new all-time highs. Josh also explains why energy stocks may still have significant upside and how he’s positioning his portfolio to capture asymmetric opportunities in the sector. He also notes that higher global oil prices could be particularly positive for Canadian oil producers, which stand to benefit from stronger crude pricing and increased demand for secure supply outside the Middle East. In Pro Picks, Josh highlights Crescent Energy (CRGY), which he describes as a “Moneyball”-style operator buying and improving undervalued assets; Ensign Energy Services (ESI.TO), an oilfield services company he believes is being overly punished for its Middle East exposure despite strong free cash flow; and Journey Energy (JOY.TO), a small-cap Canadian producer he says still has meaningful upside driven by its Duvernay exposure and potential takeover interest.
Then we shift to the sell side with Patrick O’Rourke, Managing Director, Institutional Equity Research at ATB Cormark Capital Markets, who explains how analysts and institutional investors are interpreting the crisis — with a particular focus on what it means for Canadian oil prices and producers. Patrick breaks down why crude volatility has been concentrated at the front end of the curve, why energy equities haven’t fully reacted yet, and how investors are trying to determine whether higher oil prices will last. He also explains how global supply disruptions are tightening Canadian heavy oil differentials, improving realized prices for Canadian crude, and increasing demand for barrels that can reach the Gulf Coast or Asian markets.
From geopolitical risk to Canadian energy policy to the stocks investors are watching closely, this episode takes you inside the biggest debate in energy markets right now—whether this is just another oil spike or the beginning of a much larger structural shift.
Timestamps
00:00 Trailer
02:20 Intro
04:40 The buy side view: How we could see $200 oil
07:30 What about demand destruction?
09:40 Shocking for the U.S. President to flat out lie
12:00 Implications for midterm elections
14:00 IEA releasing 400M barrels
16:15 Expectations for a premium in crude
18:00 Why aren’t energy stocks reacting?
19:45 Is Josh investing like oil is going to $200? 5X opportunities
23:00 Now Josh is more favourable to Canadian energy stocks
24:00 Josh’s Pro Picks (JOY, ESY, CRGY)
44:15 The sell side view
48:00 Why haven’t Canadian oil & gas stocks responded
50:35 What would lead to a higher for longer oil price?
54:00 Implications for Canadian crude prices
57:00 Could production from Canada go any way to support the deficit?
58:20 What names are best positioned to ride out the volatility?
Sponsors
For over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca today to discover how you can live a life well planned.
Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial. For more information on ATB Cormark Capital Markets visit https://ATB.com/inthemoney
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DISCLAIMERS
The information provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone looking to sharpen their financial strategy.
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