Daniel Davis Deep Dive MIT Prof Ted Postol: RUSSIA's ORESHNIK Ballistic Missile
Jan 23, 2026
Ted Postol, MIT professor and missile systems expert, breaks down the Oreshnik ballistic weapon with sharp technical clarity. He explains why intercepting it in powered flight is nearly impossible. He details launch profiles, submunition design and dispersal, and how hypersonic impacts create blast-like effects without needing explosives.
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Hypersonic Impact Produces Explosive Vaporization
- Hypersonic impacts crush and vaporize the penetrator's front before it can
Penetration Into Ground Is Limited
- A long, narrow dense submunition passes through multi-layer structures but vaporizes on hitting solid ground.
- The resulting blast resembles a surface explosion rather than deep underground penetration.
Submunition Shape Maximizes Ballistic Coefficient
- The likely Oreshnik submunitions are long, dense rods to maximize mass per area and reduce drag.
- Postol hypothesizes tungsten triconic shapes to survive reentry and carry kinetic effect.