Marketplace All-in-One Who can stop insider trading on prediction markets?
Apr 9, 2026
Meghan McCarty Carino, Marketplace senior reporter who covers prediction markets and regulation, walks through suspiciously timed multimillion-dollar bets and an Israel-related arrest. She explains why prediction markets can be treated as futures, the evolution of commodities insider trading rules, and the debate over whether informed wagers help or harm fairness.
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High Stakes Bets Led To Big Wins And Arrests
- A newly created account on Polymarket bet that Nicolás Maduro would be out of office and won over $400,000.
- Bloomberg reported about $1.7 million flowed through platforms around an Iran ceasefire, and Israeli arrests followed for classified-info bets.
Prediction Markets Treated As Futures Not Gambling
- Prediction markets are currently regulated as futures contracts under the CFTC rather than gambling markets.
- Kalshi obtained a license in 2024, prompting CFTC jurisdiction while state gambling regulators contest the classification.
Why Commodities Were Exempt From Insider Rules
- Commodities historically lacked insider trading bans because there were no shareholders to protect and insiders improved price accuracy.
- Market participants like farmers hedging crops were expected to have superior, useful information.