Transmission Why Natural Gas Prices In The US Just Jumped 70% (Energy Flux)
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Feb 5, 2026 Seb Kennedy, founder of Energy Flux and gas market analyst, breaks down the January 2026 gas chaos. He walks through short-squeeze mechanics in Europe. He explains US freeze-offs and the sudden Henry Hub jump. He discusses LNG export constraints, geopolitics from Venezuela to Panama, and Pakistan's rooftop solar shift. He flags the big themes to watch in 2026.
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How Short Positions Become Market Rocket Fuel
- Fund positioning can amplify routine winter demand into explosive price moves via short squeezes.
- Cold forecasts plus depleted storage plus net-short funds created the recent rapid TTF spike.
Freeze-Off Fears Drove The US Price Shock
- US polar-vortex forecasts raised both domestic demand risk and fears of production freeze-offs.
- Those fears caused Henry Hub to jump ~60% in 48 hours and fed back into European TTF prices.
LNG Glut Cannibalises Its Own Margins
- Rapid LNG build-out creates a looming glut that pushes Henry Hub up while depressing TTF/Asian prices.
- That dynamic compresses LNG producer margins and changes project economics long-term.