The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Daily: Are We Going to War in Iran?
Feb 25, 2026
Eric Brewer, nuclear security expert at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, and Ariane Tabatabai, Iran specialist and policy fellow, break down the looming U.S. confrontation with Iran. They explore military buildup versus diplomacy. They debate goals—nuclear rollback or responding to protest massacres. They examine strike value, the need for clear objectives, and risks of escalation and regime instability.
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Buildup Suggests Campaign Not One-Off Strike
- U.S. preparations look like they're posturing for a sustained campaign rather than a one-off strike.
- Ariane Tabatabai cites massive movement of naval, air, and support assets beyond what was seen in Midnight Hammer as evidence.
Airstrikes Have Diminished Value Against Nuclear Stores
- Further U.S. strikes against Iran's nuclear program would have limited counterproliferation value post‑Midnight Hammer.
- Eric Brewer notes Natanz and Fordow are offline and 60% enriched uranium is likely in tunnels impervious to munitions.
Mixed Messages Are Undermining Negotiations
- Administration objectives appear inconsistent across actors, producing mixed signals to Iran.
- Eric Brewer and Ariane Tabatabai point to divergent public demands and shifting negotiation priorities as a core problem.