Enterprise Explores Economy Gets an ‘A’ in 2025, But a Tariff Shock in 2026?
Malaysia’s economy scored an ‘A’ in 2025, with strong GDP growth and a strengthening Ringgit. But with slowing global growth and US tariffs looming, was 2025 a fluke or a foundation?
Pankaj Kumar, Managing Director of Datametrics Research & Information Centre (DARE), joins BFM to kick off our "2025 Review & 2026 Outlook" series. We unpack the disconnect between stellar macro data and the "ground reality" of rising costs, and why the full impact of US trade policy might hit Malaysia like a tsunami in 2026.
NOTE: This interview was recorded just before the US attacked Venezuela and captured its President Nicolás Maduro. As such, this development is not reflected in the conversation.
We discuss:
2025 Report Card: Pankaj grades Malaysia’s GDP performance an ‘A’, driven by a surprise 17.7% surge in net exports in Q3 and the successful rollout of the BUDI 95 subsidy rationalization.
The "Feel Good" Gap: Why businesses and consumers aren't feeling the growth. Pankaj attributes this to the booming e-commerce sector killing retail footfall, low wages, and the compliance costs of new taxes like the widened SST.
Cabinet Reshuffle & Governance: Pankaj welcomes the recent appointments but argues the Prime Minister should relinquish the Finance Minister portfolio to ensure better governance.
The Trump Factor: Malaysia navigated the "liberation day tariffs" well with a reciprocal 19% rate, but Pankaj warns that 2025’s export numbers were inflated by "front-loading" demand, meaning the real pain will arrive in 2026.
Outlook 2026: With the US and China slowing down, Malaysia must pivot to domestic demand and broader investments to sustain growth as export momentum fades.
Ringgit to 3.80? Why Bank Negara will likely hold rates steady, and Pankaj’s bold prediction that the Ringgit could head back towards its peg-era level of 3.80 as the US dollar’s safe-haven status erodes.
Investment Strategy: Navigating the risks of a "Trump-friendly" Fed Chair and why Pankaj is bullish on precious metals, specifically arguing that platinum is undervalued relative to gold.
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