The Compound and Friends

Twelve Rules for Riding a Bubble With Jeff deGraaf, Micron and Sandisk (Finally) Pull Back, Housing Stocks Crash

57 snips
May 12, 2026
Guest
Jeff deGraaf
Jeff deGraaf, market technician and founder at RenMac known for bubble analysis, shares concise rules for riding parabolic markets. He outlines a doubling-in-two-years bubble signal and practical sizing-and-exit guidelines. Conversation covers volatile memory stocks like Micron and Sandisk, AI-driven compute and CapEx pressures, and a sharp selloff in housing-related shares.
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ANECDOTE

Isaac Newton Fell For The South Sea Bubble

  • Jeff deGraaf recounts Isaac Newton's South Sea experience to illustrate bubble psychology and recency bias.
  • Newton sold for a 3x gain, re-entered, and later died with much of his estate locked in South Sea stock.
INSIGHT

Memory Mania Has A Rational Earnings Backstory

  • Micron and related memory names exploded because forward EPS and sales forecasts surged, making rapid price moves rational.
  • Michael Batnick notes 12-month forward EPS for MSCI Korea quadrupled in a month, explaining parabolic rallies.
INSIGHT

Memory Stocks Show Classic FOMO Bounce Behavior

  • Intraday memory-stock action showed sharp declines then quick buys, indicating strong FOMO and new buyers chasing dips.
  • Micron fell ~9% intraday but buyers pushed it back to a 4% close, suggesting many buyers are fresh entrants who missed earlier rallies.
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