Many Happy Returns The Tariffs Are Dead. Long Live the Tariffs.
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Feb 25, 2026 A Supreme Court ruling overturned tariffs while the administration raced to impose new ones under a different law. They unpack which tariffs still stand, who ultimately bears the cost, and the messy legal and refund fight ahead. The conversation also covers how markets shrugged, potential fiscal and bond market fallout, and the spaghetti bowl effect in overlapping trade deals.
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Court Checks Presidential Tariff Power
- The Supreme Court ruled Trump exceeded authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, so that legal basis for many tariffs was invalidated.
- Ramin and Michael note markets barely reacted because they expected the administration to reimpose tariffs under different statutes, so policy risk remains high.
Tariffs Ultimately Burden Americans
- Tariffs are taxes and the power to levy them belongs to Congress unless explicitly delegated to the president.
- The New York Fed found about 90% of 2025 tariff costs fell on US firms and consumers, not foreign exporters.
Tariffs Didn't Fix The Trade Deficit Or Jobs
- Despite aggressive tariffing, America's trade deficit barely moved and simply shifted between partner countries.
- Michael highlights that tariffs didn't revive US manufacturing; manufacturing employment declined and 100,000 factory jobs were lost last year.