The Briefing Room Iran: What happens next?
Jun 26, 2025
In this discussion, Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at The Economist, and Dr. Patricia Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear physics, dive into the complexities surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions. They analyze how U.S. military actions have impacted Iran's nuclear capabilities and the country's potential for regime change. The conversation also covers the internal turmoil within Iran and the implications of an upcoming leadership succession, alongside Iran's ongoing quest for nuclear materials amid growing international scrutiny.
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Uncertain Impact of US Strikes
- US bombings heavily damaged some Iranian sites but key uranium stockpiles remain unaccounted for.
- Intelligence might be distorted to suit political narratives, complicating true damage assessment.
Missile Stockpile and Capabilities
- Iran retains some ballistic missile capability despite heavy losses in conflict.
- Missile launch effectiveness is poor due to Israeli suppression of launch sites.
Erosion of Iran's Regional Allies
- Iran’s proxies are weakening or prioritizing self-preservation over ideological alignment.
- Groups like Hezbollah face political extinction if they engage further in Iran's conflicts.