The Town with Matthew Belloni Oscars Preview! Timmy Trouble, a ‘Sinners’ Surge, and a Big Lead for 'One Battle'
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Mar 11, 2026 Michael Lasker, Mosaic talent manager and Oscars insider with deep awards-season access, breaks down Oscar week narratives. He discusses Timothée Chalamet’s momentum loss and why young phenoms sometimes wait for a win. He weighs the late surge for Sinners against One Battle’s commanding lead. He also flags surprise contenders and how campaigning and new voting rules could matter.
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Solo Actor Wins Tend To Be Special Cases
- Best Actor wins where the film only wins that single Oscar are rare and often reflect a standout or compensatory vote.
- Lasker lists Denzel for Training Day and Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote as examples.
Bet On Movies Winning Down The Ballot
- Expect voters to often vote a movie 'down the line' so ensemble momentum matters more than single-category pushes.
- Lasker argues that support for One Battle could push multiple categories and influence Best Picture.
Why Mikey Madison Beat The Favorite Last Year
- Michael Lasker recounts predicting Mikey Madison over Demi last year because Madison was in every scene and more integral to the film.
- He uses that logic to explain why Michael B. Jordan's twin-role performance could sway votes.