Iran War maintains the boil. Market shrugs off Jensen Huang's latest hype.

12 snips

Mar 17, 2026

Coverage of Middle East tensions and disruptions to oil flows around Hormuz and Fujairah. Discussion of spikes in energy logistics, fertilizer and commodity squeezes. Analysis of AI hardware hype, Jensen Huang’s big claims and how memory and inference inefficiencies matter. Macro moves across FX, central bank updates and an eye on Micron’s upcoming memory report.

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INSIGHT

Bitcoin Failed Breakout Signals Liquidity Caution

Bitcoin attempted a decisive breakout above ~$74,000 but was rejected, making it a near-term risk-on/liquidity indicator to watch.
Hardy flagged the squeeze-through then rejection as important for gauging market liquidity and sentiment.

INSIGHT

Iran Disruptions Removing Roughly Half Regional Oil Flows

Iran-related disruptions are cutting roughly half of regional oil throughput as alternative routes and pipeline suspensions reduce effective flow.
Hardy cited Javier Blas' tally and noted Fujairah suspensions plus Iraqi loading stoppages materially tighten supply.

INSIGHT

Crude Prices Diverge Sharply By Location

Oil price dispersion is extreme with onshore WTI near $93 while some Middle East loadings (Omani) traded above $150, reflecting local bottlenecks.
Hardy gave specific price snapshots: Cushing $93.50, Brent ~$103.77, Omani reported up to $153–$170.

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Today, plenty of headlines from the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz to keep oil prices boiling, if not yet boiling over, with plenty more to come if the oil doesn't start flowing soon. Are the US and Israel flailing or slowly winning? The opinions are certainly very divided. Elsewhere, Jensen Huang's tries and fails to pump up enthusiasm for sideways trending Nvidia stock, an interesting sign, while high-flying memory maker Micron is set to report tomorrow after the close. Macro and FX also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

Here's an X Post from Chris Laub discussing a paper that describes why the current generation of AI hardware is poorly designed for the inference needs that are in highest demand and what the implications are - clearly plenty of urgency to streamline the output per watt with future systems designs, from how tasks are routed to the design of the hardware itself.

On the Iran War, here's one commenter making a reasonable case that the US has gotten itself in a mess with this Iran War, with few good options on what to do next save for just leaving. We are not endorsing this point of view, just pointing to it. And others think that the Israeli-US strategy is working as Iran's decades of preparation are being destroyed in a matter of days and weeks. Interestingly, Ilan (writer of the first post linked to above) specifically tries to dismantle the second link in another post.

About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

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Intro music by AShamaluevMusic

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