2025 Predictions Exposed: What I Got Right & Wrong

A SPECIAL REPORT:

Last December, I published a 23-page report predicting what would happen in 2025 — treasury yields, inflation, GDP, housing supply. Today, I'm grading myself in public.

Predicted 10Y Treasury: 4.1% → Actual: 4.11%

Predicted Seattle Permits: -36% → Actual: -50%

Predicted Inflation: 2.5% → Actual: 2.7%

Most predictions were directionally right. Some were wrong. And 2025 threw curveballs nobody saw coming — $40B in wildfire losses by Week 2, a 43-day government shutdown, and a GDP path that broke every model.

This video covers:

→ The Six Forces scorecard (with grades)

→ Black swan events that blindsided everyone

→ The behavioral finance of 2025 (anchoring, recency bias, narrative fallacy)

→ What I'm watching for 2026

00:00 - What I Predicted

02:30 - The Six Forces Scorecard

12:00 - What Nobody Saw Coming

18:00 - Behavioral Finance Audit

26:00 - The Denver Deal I Didn't Do

30:00 - 2026 Watchlist

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