The Nonlinear Library EA - Some fun lessons I learned as a junior regrantor by Joel Becker
Dec 20, 2023
08:45
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Some fun lessons I learned as a junior regrantor, published by Joel Becker on December 20, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum.
Title in
homage to Linch.
In the second half of 2022, I was a
Manifund regrantor. I ended up funding:
Holly Elmore to "
[organize] for a frontier AI moratorium." ($2.5k.)
Jordan Schneider/ChinaTalk to produce "
deep coverage of China and AI." ($17.55k.)
Robert Long to conduct "
empirical research into AI consciousness and moral patienthood." ($7.2k.)
Greg Sadler/GAP
organizational expenses. ($10k.)
Nuño Sempere to "
make ALERT happen." ($8k.)
Zhonghao He to "
[map] neuroscience and mechanistic interpretability." ($1.75k.)
Alexa Pan to write an "
explainer and analysis of CNCERT/CC (国家互联网应急中心)." ($1.5k.)
Marcel van Diemen to build "
The Base Rate Times." ($2.5k, currently unclaimed.)
You can find my decisions and comments on grants on my profile. Here, I want to reflect on lessons learned from this wonderful opportunity.
I was pretty wrong about my edge
In
my bio, I wrote:
To the extent that I have an edge as a regrantor, I think it comes from having an unusually large professional network. This, plus not having serious expertise in any particular area, makes me excited to invest in "people not projects."
I had previously ran a prestigious fellowship program where (by the end) I thought I was pretty good at selection. Successfully running an analogous selection process over people recommended from my wide network (this time for grants) seemed like it would transfer neatly. Austin, who co-runs Manifund, and who participated in my earlier program, seemed to agree on both counts.
I still believe the premises, and so remain hopeful that this could be an edge in future. But it was largely unimportant for my recent regranting experience. (Only the grant to Greg Sadler/GAP came out of asking my network for recommendations; only the grant to Robert Long came from private knowledge I would have had regardless of being a regrantor.)
I haven't fully figured out why this was. My current best guesses are:
What matters most for 'deal flow' is not having a talented network but in-person conversations (with people in a talented network). 2023 was perhaps my most socially isolated non-COVID year.
A fraction of a $50k budget is not enough for the kinds of recommendations one might want from one's network. I don't hear about opportunities like "this great person should start that great organization" because these would require more than $50k.
Recommenders aren't naturally in the mode of looking out for nor dreaming up novel opportunities.
Evidence in favor: Greg Sadler was recommended by someone who previously regranted to Greg Sadler.
Perhaps I could have found a better way to get recommenders to change mode in conversations with me. Or perhaps this problem would fix itself if Manifund became better-known.
But I have been happy about my low-level strategy
Above the edge section of my bio, I
wrote:
I plan on using my regranting role to optimize for "good AI/bio funding ecosystem" and not "perceived ROI of regrants I make personally." I think that this means trying to:
Be really cooperative behind the scenes. (E.g. sharing information and strategies with other regrantors,
proactively helping Manifund founders with strategy.)
Post questions about/evaluations of grants publicly.
Work quickly.
Pursue grants that might otherwise fall through the gaps. (E.g. because they're too small, or politically challenging for other funders, or from somewhat unknown grantees, or from grantees who are unaware that they should ask for funding.)
Not get too excited about grants where (1) evaluation would benefit strongly from a project-first investment thesis (e.g. supporting AI safety agenda X vs. Y) or (2) the ideas are obvious enough that (to the extent that the ideas are good)...
Title in
homage to Linch.
In the second half of 2022, I was a
Manifund regrantor. I ended up funding:
Holly Elmore to "
[organize] for a frontier AI moratorium." ($2.5k.)
Jordan Schneider/ChinaTalk to produce "
deep coverage of China and AI." ($17.55k.)
Robert Long to conduct "
empirical research into AI consciousness and moral patienthood." ($7.2k.)
Greg Sadler/GAP
organizational expenses. ($10k.)
Nuño Sempere to "
make ALERT happen." ($8k.)
Zhonghao He to "
[map] neuroscience and mechanistic interpretability." ($1.75k.)
Alexa Pan to write an "
explainer and analysis of CNCERT/CC (国家互联网应急中心)." ($1.5k.)
Marcel van Diemen to build "
The Base Rate Times." ($2.5k, currently unclaimed.)
You can find my decisions and comments on grants on my profile. Here, I want to reflect on lessons learned from this wonderful opportunity.
I was pretty wrong about my edge
In
my bio, I wrote:
To the extent that I have an edge as a regrantor, I think it comes from having an unusually large professional network. This, plus not having serious expertise in any particular area, makes me excited to invest in "people not projects."
I had previously ran a prestigious fellowship program where (by the end) I thought I was pretty good at selection. Successfully running an analogous selection process over people recommended from my wide network (this time for grants) seemed like it would transfer neatly. Austin, who co-runs Manifund, and who participated in my earlier program, seemed to agree on both counts.
I still believe the premises, and so remain hopeful that this could be an edge in future. But it was largely unimportant for my recent regranting experience. (Only the grant to Greg Sadler/GAP came out of asking my network for recommendations; only the grant to Robert Long came from private knowledge I would have had regardless of being a regrantor.)
I haven't fully figured out why this was. My current best guesses are:
What matters most for 'deal flow' is not having a talented network but in-person conversations (with people in a talented network). 2023 was perhaps my most socially isolated non-COVID year.
A fraction of a $50k budget is not enough for the kinds of recommendations one might want from one's network. I don't hear about opportunities like "this great person should start that great organization" because these would require more than $50k.
Recommenders aren't naturally in the mode of looking out for nor dreaming up novel opportunities.
Evidence in favor: Greg Sadler was recommended by someone who previously regranted to Greg Sadler.
Perhaps I could have found a better way to get recommenders to change mode in conversations with me. Or perhaps this problem would fix itself if Manifund became better-known.
But I have been happy about my low-level strategy
Above the edge section of my bio, I
wrote:
I plan on using my regranting role to optimize for "good AI/bio funding ecosystem" and not "perceived ROI of regrants I make personally." I think that this means trying to:
Be really cooperative behind the scenes. (E.g. sharing information and strategies with other regrantors,
proactively helping Manifund founders with strategy.)
Post questions about/evaluations of grants publicly.
Work quickly.
Pursue grants that might otherwise fall through the gaps. (E.g. because they're too small, or politically challenging for other funders, or from somewhat unknown grantees, or from grantees who are unaware that they should ask for funding.)
Not get too excited about grants where (1) evaluation would benefit strongly from a project-first investment thesis (e.g. supporting AI safety agenda X vs. Y) or (2) the ideas are obvious enough that (to the extent that the ideas are good)...