The Gist Eli Lake: "It Could Be An Epic Historic Geopolitical Mitzvah"
Mar 2, 2026
Eli Lake, national security journalist and author who covers intelligence and geopolitics, explains how this air campaign is unlike Iraq. He dissects Iran's missile defenses, interceptor limits, and the race to secure nuclear material. He also weighs the prospects for air-only leadership strikes, regional spoilers, and how long such a campaign might be sustainable.
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Air Decapitation Differs From Iraq Occupation
- The Iran campaign is a larger military intervention than June's 12-day strikes but avoids Iraq-style ground occupation.
- Eli Lake says Trump refuses nation-building, so decapitation from air aims to topple leaders without 300,000 troops or long-term occupation.
Missile Defense Is A Costly 'Devilish Math' Problem
- Missile defense creates a cost-exchange problem: interceptors are far more expensive than the missiles they shoot down.
- Lake warns the U.S. nearly ran out of interceptors in June and commitments to Ukraine strain stocks further.
Lasers Can Help But Have Environmental Limits
- New technologies like Israel's Iron Beam laser could reduce interceptor demand but have limits in weather and ballistic scenarios.
- Lake notes lasers help against short-range threats but sandstorms and ballistic missiles constrain use.