FEAR & GREED | Business News Q+A: The Week Ahead | 16 Mar 2026
Mar 15, 2026
Stephen Koukoulas, economist and commentator known as 'The Kook', offers macroeconomic analysis. He discusses the RBA board's likely hawkish tilt and who might push for a rate hike. He explains why oil price swings matter for inflation and policymaking. He previews how this week's labour force figures could shape monetary decisions.
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RBA Board Is No Longer A Rubber Stamp
- The RBA board is now genuinely contestable, not a rubber stamp, with independent members influencing rate decisions.
- Stephen Koukoulas notes the governor and deputy will likely argue to hike, and independent members add real monetary expertise to the board.
Petrol Moves Quickly Show Up In Inflation
- Oil has a heavy CPI weighting so quick moves in petrol prices materially alter inflation readings.
- Koukoulas gives the rule of thumb: a 10% petrol rise adds about 0.3 percentage points to inflation, so 20% adds ~0.6 points.
Hold Rates To See If Oil Shock Lasts
- Delay can be prudent when facing volatile oil-driven inflation shocks to avoid hiking then reversing policy.
- Koukoulas suggests holding now and signalling a hike if oil stays elevated, buying the RBA five to six weeks to see duration.