Bloomberg Talks Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Talks Iran War
Mar 5, 2026
Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, offers concise economic perspective. He discusses how the Iran conflict could affect gasoline and oil prices. He talks about inflation's recent run, labor market signals, productivity gains, and why policy is currently modestly restrictive. He also reflects on Fed leadership, balance sheet size, and regional outreach.
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Gas Prices Drive Consumer Sentiment More Than Trade Status
- Oil price moves matter more for consumer sentiment than net import status in the US right now.
- Tom Barkin notes gasoline jumps over the last week can crowd out spending and influence behavior even if the US is a net producer.
Wait For Shock Duration Before Changing Rates
- Monitor whether oil shocks are short lived before changing monetary policy; look through transitory shocks but react to persistent ones.
- Barkin warns the FOMC will assess shock duration meeting by meeting when deciding on rate cuts.
Consumers Are Exhausted And Limit Pricing Power
- Businesses report limited pricing power as consumers push back on higher prices and trade down or delay purchases.
- Barkin says conversations since fall indicate consumers are exhausted and firms can't easily pass through cost increases.