US labour market growth slows but productivity rises

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the American labour market data for April seemed to have something for everyone.

But first, in the coming week it will be relatively quiet, especially on the US data front. But the Q1 earnings season is in its final weeks and still includes some major reporting. Elsewhere we will get set-piece central bank announcements from Sweden, England, Brazil and Malaysia, and of course from Australia tomorrow. China's CPI and PPI will also be released, but not until Saturday.

New analysis shows that American labour productivity is rising and at its quickest rate since the the 1990s, and in 2023 that was its highest pace in half a century. It is too soon to credit AI, so this could be a new and important trend. Rising productivity is an essential precursor for rising standards of living.

But over the weekend, the US reported that their economy added only +175,000 jobs in April, on the headline, seasonally adjusted basis, the least since October and a deceleration compared to the upwardly revised +315,000 jobs added in March. It fell short of market expectations for a +243,000 increase. This data underscores a significant slowdown from the brisk pace observed in the first quarter and trails behind the average monthly gain of +242,000 jobs over the preceding 12 months. But between the two months combined the 'slowdown' is quite small.

But in fact, on an 'actual' basis employer payrolls rose +803,000 to 158.0 mln and a record high. On a household basis, including the unincorporated self-employed, they rose +234,000 to 161.6 mln and showing the continuing shift from self-employment to company payrolls that we have observed in prior 2024 months. Either way, there are actually significantly more people employed that the headline levels suggest. Full time jobs rose, part time job levels shifted lower.

But the American labour force is growing slightly faster than these employed levels show so the jobless rate ticked up, very slightly admittedly, to 3.9% and although that is similar to last month it is at the upper range of what they have had since August 2023. (The New Zealand jobless rate was 4.3% in March 2024.)

Average weekly earnings rose +3.9% in April from a year ago, lower than the March level of 4.1%, so there are signs of less labour market pressure. (US CPI is 3.5%.)

And we should not forget that labour market data is a lagging indicator.

A leading indicator is a metric like the PMIs. And the ISM services PMI for April turned negative, dropping sharply to a contracting 49.4 in April from an expanding 51.4 in March. This is their first contraction in the services sector activity since December 2022, and it surprised markets who had expected a continuing expansion. But before we get too carried away, we should note that the new order component remained expansionary, so this overall drop might be just a blip.

The internationally-benchmarked US Markit services PMI is still showing an expansion, albeit a slower one.

So despite the headlines of a labour market and service sector undershoot, the markets liked the implications. Risk appetites returned with the S&P500 rising, bond yields falling, and the USD easing. Basically markets now feel US rate hikes are less likely as inflation pressures are easing - just as the US Fed itself seemed have suggested. The expectations of one 2024 rate cut late in the year are creeping back.

American vehicle sales came in slightly higher in April and the highest monthly sales rate since December, now at 15.7 mln, up +0.5% from the rate in the same month a year ago. For perspective, it reached an all time high of 21.7 mln units in October 2001 and a record low of 8.5 mln in April 2020.

In China, their publicly traded companies took a net profit hit for the first time in five years in 2023, as the protracted property sector slump bled into other industries. The roughly 5,200 non-finance companies listed in mainland China logged a combined net profit of NZ$655 bln last year, according to DZH data. This amounts to a -3% or -NZ$20 bln overall retreat. In Q1-2024 the decline swelled to -5% on that basis.

China returns from its "Labor Day" week of holiday, today. And there are no real signs their property market has bottomed out, as some claim. In fact, banks' mortgage books are now shrinking, undermining claims the market is stabilising.

Global real estate services provider CBRE first-quarter profit beat analysts' estimates for Q1-2024, helped by higher leasing demand at a time when commercial property sales remain under pressure from elevated interest rates. Their revenue rose +7%.

In Australia, eyes are turning to tomorrow's rate review by their central bank. No change is expected, but it will be closely followed for signals of the recently talked about rate rise possibility.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.51% and little-changed from Saturday. 

The price of gold will start today up a minor -US$1 from Saturday at US$2301/oz.

Oil prices have stayed down at just under US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just over US$82.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today slightly softer from Saturday at just over 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 91 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 55.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 69.3 and down -10 bps from Saturday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,262 and up +4.0% from Saturday and basically back to where it was a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.