The Rachman Review Formidable US firepower fails to unseat Iran’s regime
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Mar 12, 2026 
Sir Simon Gass, former British ambassador to Iran and ex-chair of the UK Joint Intelligence Committee, offers his seasoned take on Iran’s wartime resilience. He explains why hardline leadership rose, how Iran’s power centres operate in conflict, and why strikes have not neutralised its asymmetric options. He also discusses the Strait of Hormuz, oil-price pressures on US strategy, and prospects for diplomacy and Gulf recalibration.
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You Don't Need To Close Hormuz To Paralyse Shipping
- Iran uses multiple methods to threaten the Strait: proxies, missiles, and obstruction including mines, limpet attacks, drones or harassment to deter insurers and crews.
- Gass stresses deterrence of shipowners is enough; physical closure isn't required to spike insurance and prices.
Oil Prices Will Drive US Decision Making
- Oil price movements will likely determine US appetite to continue the campaign; sustained high prices push Washington to finish quickly.
- Gass notes $90/bbl then could spike above $100 if Hormuz stays constrained, pressuring US domestic politics.
Iran Wants Survival And A Credible Hormuz Deterrent
- Iran's likely post-conflict claim is survival plus deterrent credibility over Hormuz rather than seeking prolonged war.
- Gass predicts Iran may fire token strikes as it ends combat to signal it sets terms, but won't extend the war extensively.