CoinDesk Podcast Network Why 10x Research Sees a Bitcoin Drop to $50,000 This Summer | Markets Outlook
Feb 17, 2026
Markus Thielen, founder and CEO of 10x Research, a firm specializing in on-chain and market-microstructure analysis. He warns of institutional redemptions and a large liquidity gap driving a deeper bitcoin decline. He explains the post-election liquidity trap and how negative option gamma forced market-makers into selling. He outlines a possible $40–50K summer range and timing factors for a bottom.
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Institutional Selling Created Early-Year Downtrend
- Markus Thielen says institutional selling and hedge fund redemptions drove early-year downward pressure on bitcoin.
- ETFs briefly inflowed then outflowed, flipping the Coinbase premium to a discount and worsening the imbalance.
Liquidity Gap Created A 'Liquidity Trap'
- Thielen describes a liquidity gap after the November 2024 post-election spike that left little trading activity between price levels.
- Falling into that gap triggered a liquidity trap and cascading selling from market makers hedging negative option gamma.
Negative Gamma Forced Market-Maker Selling
- Negative option gamma around $75,000 forced market makers to sell futures, amplifying downside pressure.
- Thielen frames that cascade as the start, not the end, of a new downtrend driven by hedging dynamics.