Net Assessment Will U.S. Allies Hedge? Should They?
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Mar 12, 2026 Allies are quietly diversifying security ties and economic links as U.S. unpredictability rises. The conversation probes whether hedging stems from one president or deeper power shifts. They debate defense procurement choices, European industrial limits, and the nuclear deterrence question. Reactions to the Iran conflict reveal how far partners will go to assert independence.
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Europe Sees Alliance As Liability Not Guarantee
- European allies are actively reconsidering ties to the United States because Trump's transactional approach made deep ties a vulnerability.
- James Lindsay and Melanie Marlowe highlight Davos, Munich, and public comments showing leaders now seek diversification and new partners.
Interests Beat Values In Alliance Choices
- Interests trump values in practice: European leaders prioritize tangible national interests over lofty shared-value rhetoric.
- Christopher Preble criticizes Europe for delaying autonomy efforts and trusting U.S. commitments that proved unreliable.
Build Capacity So Allies Can Say No
- Allies should build enough independent capacity so they can say no to coercion from any great power.
- Christopher Preble urges Germany, France, and the UK to develop indigenous capabilities and avoid overdependence on U.S. leverage.