E152: Raoul Pal: How to Make it in Crypto in 2026 (without getting lucky)

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Dec 18, 2025

Raoul Pal, a macro investor and co-founder of Real Vision, shares his insights on making it in crypto by 2026—emphasizing patience and the importance of holding the right assets. He discusses the influence of liquidity on performance, the necessity of independent analysis, and the pitfalls of short-term trading. Raoul also dives into the future of Bitcoin as digital gold and the transformative potential of NFTs. His golden rule? Sometimes doing nothing is the best strategy for long-term gains.

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ADVICE

Hold The Right Assets And Do Nothing

Hold the right assets and then do nothing during the cycle to avoid costly mistakes.
Decide how much risk you can tolerate and align your holdings to that timeframe.

INSIGHT

Liquidity Is The Dominant Macro Factor

Liquidity is the dominant macro driver of crypto performance and explains most big moves.
Overlay token adoption on liquidity to understand which assets truly benefit.

ADVICE

Build A Minimum-Regret Portfolio

Build a minimum-regret portfolio by avoiding stupid, high-tail-risk bets that can go to zero.
Favor sizeable layer-1s for core exposure and only degen small positions with tiny capital.

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Raoul Pal shares his framework for making it in crypto in 2026 without getting lucky: hold the right assets and do absolutely nothing.

THE SHIFT NEWSLETTER

💡Go beyond the mic - subscribe to The Shift, my new weekly newsletter where I share the uncut stories, raw takes, and behind-the-scenes notes from When Shift Happens: https://www.kevinfollonier.com/crypto-web3-newsletter

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CONNECT WITH RAOUL👇

Twitter: https://x.com/RaoulGMI

Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi

YouTube: @RaoulPalTJM

GET RAOUL PAL’S FREE REPORT AND PREPARE FOR THE NEXT DECADE: https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe

FOLLOW WHEN SHIFT HAPPENS

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DISCLAIMER

The info contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speakers who are not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. The speakers do not guarantee any particular outcome.

0:00 Introduction1:40 Please Subscribe2:06 Getting Sick, Conferences, & Podcasts4:04 You’re Either A God Or A Moron6:13 Why Would Someone Attack Anyone For Any Reason?15:13 Our Trusted Partners18:46 Traders Are Claiming The Move Is To Buy & Hold21:38 Liquidity Is The Name Of The Game In Crypto26:59 What Is A Minimum Regret Portfolio30:47 Does Raoul Follow His Own Framework36:33 Our Valued Sponsors40:24 What Raoul Needs To Pull The Trigger On ZCash54:26 Wall Streets Thoughts On Crypto vs Reality56:21 Raoul’s Take On Crypto’s Exponential Growth1:09:43 Raoul’s Portfolio In 20251:11:48 Honest Thoughts On SUI In Late 20251:21:03 How Lucky It Is To Be In These Positions 1:28:13 What’s Happening With NFTs1:35:27 The Upstream Of All Wealth Leads To Art1:38:53 Is Your Advice Still To Buy The Dip In 20251:45:50 We’re Learning Conviction Even Now1:47:55 How To Win With Crypto In 2026