The Real Eisman Playbook Iran War Volatility, Private Credit Fears Grow, & Solar Continues to Crash | The Weekly Wrap
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Mar 6, 2026 Market swings after strikes on Iran and surprising moves in Bitcoin and travel stocks. Deep dive into escalating problems in private credit, from fraud to redemptions and valuation hits. Breakdown of the ongoing collapse in solar stocks and why names like Sunrun and First Solar are suffering. Notes on health insurer risks, software earnings chatter, and big tech layoffs tied to AI.
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Big Managers Can Self-Fund But That Signals Distress
- Large private credit vehicles face real liquidity stress when redemptions exceed permitted limits and managers use firm capital to cover gaps.
- Blackstone increased withdrawal limits and used company and employee capital to fund ~$400 million beyond its 5% quarterly cap.
Public BDCs Reveal Private Credit Markdowns Fast
- Small public credit vehicles can reveal hidden asset deterioration quickly via mark-to-zero events.
- BlackRock TCP Capital marked a $25 million loan to Infinite Commerce Holdings from par to zero despite valuing it at par three months earlier.
Narratives Flip Fast And Crush Previously Hot Sectors
- Market narratives can flip quickly from bullish to bearish, driving rapid sector-wide price moves.
- Private equity and credit stocks (Apollo, Blackstone, KKR, Blue Owl) are down heavily this year as the narrative turned negative.