WSJ Opinion: Potomac Watch China Has Much to Lose in Iran
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Mar 17, 2026 
John Spencer, chairman of War Studies and urban warfare expert, offers sharp analysis. He walks through U.S. military aims and the challenge of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He explains the strategic importance of Kharg Island, China's stakes in Iran, and how the conflict reshapes deterrence, Taiwan calculations, and military-industrial lessons.
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Air Campaign Is Hitting Iran's Production Capacity
- The U.S. air campaign is achieving tactical goals by degrading Iran's missile and drone production.
- John Spencer cites over 14,000 targets struck by U.S. and Israeli forces, including missile launchers and drone factories that Iran could try to rebuild with outside help.
Opening The Strait Demands Joint Risk Reduction
- Reopening the Strait of Hormuz requires layered, joint operations to reduce risk from drones, mines, and fast boats.
- Spencer notes 90+% of ballistic missiles and ~95% of drones are being countered while mine and small-boat threats require careful naval work before escorting tankers.
Seize Kharg Island To Cut Iran's Lifeline
- Consider seizing Kharg Island to choke the regime's revenue and change its calculus without pursuing regime change.
- Spencer says Kharg handles ~90% of exports and accounts for roughly half of Iran's GDP and 60% of revenue, making it a decisive center of gravity.