The Rules of Investing Chris Joye's big contrarian call
Sep 23, 2025
Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer at Coolabah Capital and a renowned contrarian thinker, shares his bold bullish outlook on the US economy, spurred by tariffs, tax cuts, and significant AI investment. He delves into the bond markets, highlighting signs of possible rate cuts and concerns about sovereign debt. Joye warns investors about risks in hybrid replacement strategies and suggests focusing on senior financial bonds. He also considers the dynamics of liquidity and the business cycle while sharing his favorite ski destinations!
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Hybrids Showed Liquidity In March 2020
- Joye notes hybrid markets were liquid in March 2020 when his team bought $300m of hybrids amid $1.22bn traded that month.
- He uses that to argue hybrids can be liquid relative to many alternative investments.
Long-End Yields Signal Fiscal Worries
- The long end of the curve reflects concern about sustained higher rates due to government debt issuance and fiscal profligacy.
- Bond markets are therefore more cautionary about medium-term inflation and sovereign risk despite near-term easing.
Central Banks Reacted Late But Effectively
- Central banks were slow to react to post-pandemic inflation but ultimately raised rates decisively.
- Joye trusts medium-term data dependence will guide central banks correctly despite short-run political influences.