A Futurist and a Scientist Meet for the First Time | Bronwyn Williams & Michael Kinch

This episode of Just Press Record brings together futurist Bronwyn Williams and biotech expert Michael Kinch for a wide-ranging conversation on how we understand the future, why most predictions are wrong, and how human behavior, incentives, and values shape outcomes in science, economics, and society.

The discussion explores the tension between data and belief, optimism and realism, and why many well-intentioned ideas fail when applied in the real world.

Topics covered

• What futurists get wrong and why most predictions fail

• Cycles in history and how they shape economic and societal outcomes

• Optimism vs pessimism and how to think about the future using the past

• The role of unintended consequences in policy, science, and decision-making

• Why incentives often backfire and how framing changes human behavior

• The breakdown of trust in science, vaccines, and institutions

• Behavioral economics vs real-world human psychology

• Why ESG and “doing good” does not always lead to better financial outcomes

• The difference between values and value in economics and business

• South Africa as a real-world testing ground for global economic and political ideas

• Privilege, perspective, and how travel shapes understanding of the world

• Why people resist data and adopt belief-driven frameworks

• The risks of paternalism in policy and decision-making

• How honesty, transparency, and trust influence better outcomes

Timestamps

00:00 Why futurists are often wrong and what they still get right
01:20 Cycles, evolution, and the “heartbeat” of society
03:05 Introduction to the Just Press Record format and guests
06:20 What futurism really is and why it’s often misunderstood
07:00 Optimism vs pessimism and learning from history
10:00 Travel, perspective, and understanding global systems
14:00 Privilege, experience, and how worldview shapes thinking
18:40 Regional differences and why place matters for perspective
21:00 South Africa as a testing ground for future global trends
25:00 Universal basic income and unintended consequences
30:05 The 90% wrong problem in forecasting and decision-making
31:20 ESG, incentives, and the “doing good makes money” myth
36:00 Values vs value and how bad framing leads to bad policy
40:00 Science, medicine, and the role of “do no harm”
42:00 Why anti-vaccine narratives spread more effectively than data
45:00 Incentives vs framing in human behavior
49:00 Privilege, infectious disease, and why context matters
51:00 Trust, empathy, and treating people like adults
54:00 Behavioral economics and the limits of nudging
57:00 Paternalism, control, and unintended societal consequences
01:00:00 Incentives, freedom, and the risks of manipulation
01:02:00 Why transparency and uncertainty matter in science