The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Will President Trump continue to lash out and pivot the US economy back to [bearish] Paradigm B?
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Feb 23, 2026 Discussion about whether escalating trade rhetoric could push the U.S. back into a bearish Paradigm B. Analysis of recent trade policy rulings and the legal basis for new tariffs. Consideration of risks from policy retrenchment and why a sustained aggressive shift seems unlikely. Practical advice on avoiding factor and country bets and favoring broad international ETFs.
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Paradigm C Remains The Most Probable Outcome
- Paradigm B (cut) is unlikely to be the primary US policy response to treasury market imbalances.
- Darius Dale argues Paradigm C (grow) remains highest probability despite tariff headlines and legal rulings on trade authority.
Court Ruling Reignited Tariff Risk And Historical Parallels
- Trade uncertainty rose after the Supreme Court invalidated the International Emergency Economic Power Act tariffs and a proposed 15% global tariff regime surfaced.
- Darius ties the new proposal to Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act and historic Nixon-era surcharges as precedent and guardrails.
How 42 Macro Predicted The Early Cut Then Growth Sequence
- Darius recounts his 2024–2025 non-consensus call that the 2.0 Trump administration would sequence toward Paradigm B before pivoting to Paradigm C.
- That call allowed 42 Macro to increase allocations to stocks and Bitcoin in April and avoid the Liberation Day crash.