Decouple To Bomb or Not to Bomb
Sep 15, 2025
Alex Wellerstein, an associate professor known for his work on nuclear secrecy and creator of NukeMap, dives into the intricate history of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. He reveals how covert operations, like Israel's uranium acquisition in the 1960s, shaped current dynamics. They discuss Iran's strategic nuclear pursuits and Israel's ambiguous policies. Wellerstein also sheds light on significant events like the Vela incident and the implications of recent attacks on Iranian facilities, highlighting the uncertain future of nuclear weapons in the region.
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Calculate Breakout With SWU Tools
- Run separative-work calculations with explicit assumptions rather than trusting intuition when estimating breakout.
- Use SWU calculators and vary inputs to see how timelines change under different stockpile and centrifuge performance scenarios.
Iran's Program Looks Like Hedging
- Iran appears to hedge: pursue dual-use capabilities and delivery vehicles without openly racing for a bomb.
- Political signals like US withdrawal from the JCPOA shifted Tehran toward faster, more public violations and hedging behavior.
Civilian Aid Was A Nonproliferation Tool
- During the Cold War the US and USSR used civilian nuclear assistance to bind recipients to suppliers and limit proliferation.
- Bilateral 'atoms for peace' deals often traded technology and influence while attempting to lock states into monitored pathways.
