Politics At Sam and Anne's Why is so much at stake in the May elections?
Apr 6, 2026
Rob Ford, political scientist and elections analyst, breaks down the May 7 contests and why they matter. He maps battlegrounds across Scotland, Wales and England. Short flashes: Labour’s health check, the rise of Reform and Greens, the SNP and Welsh Labour’s risks, and how local maps could redraw party power.
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Ground Game And Electoral System Decide New Parties
- New parties face two challenges: ground organisation and whether the electoral system converts votes into seats.
- First past the post can magnify volatility, giving Reform or Greens disproportionate seat gains in parts of England.
Scottish Labour's Alpine Polling Curve
- Scottish Labour's polling surged in 2024 then collapsed back toward 2021 levels, making outcome interpretation highly baseline-dependent.
- Ford argues the decline began after Labour entered government and voters were unimpressed by its first months.
Wales Could Break Labour's Century Run
- Welsh Labour looks especially vulnerable because opponents now present clear alternatives on both left and right.
- Plaid Cymru attracts progressive Remain voters while Reform appeals to traditional Leave working-class Labour voters.