Reuters Econ World Just noise? Investing in turbulent geopolitical times
Jan 21, 2026
Join geopolitical expert Marko Papic, an author renowned for his insights into geopolitical risk and investing. He explores how to distinguish impactful events from mere noise in turbulent markets. Topics include the role of macro trends over headline shocks, the implications of a US-Europe rift on European assets, and the necessity of hedging against geopolitical risks with commodities. Papic also delves into potential oversupply scenarios in oil and the looming domestic policy risks in the US that could reshape borrowing costs by 2026.
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Focus On Material Constraints
- Geopolitics matters to investing when it creates material constraints that change policy choices.
- Focus on what leaders can do given constraints, not just what they want to do.
Macro, Not Drama, Moves Markets
- Markets often treat geopolitical events as noise unless they change macro fundamentals like growth or inflation.
- Tourists in geopolitics wrongly bet on events and ignore the macro context that ultimately moves assets.
Trade Dislocations, Back Fundamentals
- Wait for dislocations after events and then trade against hysteria by focusing on fundamentals.
- Invest on longer horizons where geopolitics reshapes supply, such as commodities and gold.