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Milton Berg: Don’t Fear the Headlines Yet

Mar 12, 2026
Guest
Milton Berg
Milton Berg, founder of MB Advisors and creator of a long-running S&P 500 timing model, explains why he sees the market still in a bull cycle. He describes his 8% rule to exit after meaningful declines. He walks through buy and sell signals from models dating to 1957 and shares his view that gold is overextended and best bought when cheap versus CPI.
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INSIGHT

Low Frequency Model Outperformed S&P Since 1957

  • Milton's model (since 1957) returns ~18.5% annualized with ~54 round-trip trades; it holds S&P 500 when long and T-bills when not.
  • He achieves high hit-rate by trading rarely and avoiding shorting, prioritizing long-term gains.
ADVICE

Use An 8 Percent Exit Rule

  • Do exit equities when the market falls 8% from a high — that threshold signals non-random declines and potential bear markets.
  • Milton accepts surrendering the first ~8% to avoid sitting through the bulk of a bear market.
INSIGHT

Buy Signals Target Every 8 Percent Decline

  • Berg builds buy signals from ~2,000 models focused on every historical decline of 8%+ to find low-proximity entries.
  • He emphasizes frequent confirming signals at real lows so retail investors can re-enter quickly.
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